Uruguay vs France World Cup 2018
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A mouth-watering quarterfinal match is now on the cards between France and Uruguay. A match representing two footballing continents – European method vs European style adapted Latin American country. A match between the 7th and 14th ranked footballing nations. A match between two teams who will put in display contrasting style of football. Based on the strengths and build-up to the game, this promises to be a classic in this edition of the world cup.
Analysing the French side
Let’s first analyse the French team, who has been playing an attractive style of football with its current generation of promising footballers. With the talent in midfield and in the attack, it is not a surprise that this team believes in possession football with a potent strength in the final third.
During the World Cup qualifying round, France had an average of 60% ball possession and was the group champion. This was the group where the Netherlands were playing and could not still qualify for the World Cup, thanks to Sweden having a better goal-difference. The French completed 5167 passes in 13 matches with near 90% accuracy. This possession football allowed them to score 18 goals and more importantly won 7 of the 10 matches which made them group champions with 23 points – a clear 4 point difference than Sweden, who took the second position.
Now if you see their World Cup matches so far, they had 55% possession on an average. In the knockout match against Argentina, they just had 39% possession as they relied mainly on the counter-attack to torment a slow, aged defence of Argentina. If you ignore that match, they had 60% possession on their group matches.
So, effectively here is a team with great attacking strength through Griezman, Giroud, Mbappe backed up by midfield generals of Pogba and Kante – who can play both passing football as well as do the role of effective midfield blocking. So, France’s strength lies in their midfield and attack.Having said that, they defended perfectly well against Argentina and could manage effective zonal and man-marking of players like Leo Messi, who rarely got any space to show his magic.
Analysing the Uruguayan side
Coming to Uruguay now. In their world cup qualifiers, Uruguay was placed second behind Brazil and was ahead of Argentina, Colombia and Peru. In their 18 matches, they scored 32 goals – almost fifty percent of those goals came from Cavani and Suarez. Actually, Cavani was the highest scorer in the group with a total of 10 goals, ably supported by Suarez with 5 goals.
In their world cup matches, it was an example of excellent counter-attacking football, which was in display in the knockout round against Portugal. Even with a possession of just 33%, they broke the Portuguese defence multiple times with two world-class goals scored by Cavani. While their long ball counter attacks are very productive, the dual combination and understanding that Cavani shows with Suarez is exemplary.
We all witnessed that in Uruguay’s first goal against Portugal, where a 3 touch attack from their own half resulted into a world class goal from Cavani from a near-perfect Suarez pass. So, Uruguay’s strength lies in their defence and counter attack.
How the match is likely to be played?
• I believe it will be a game of chess between the two teams – France trying to control the pace of the game with its possession while breaking into speedy attacks; Uruguay defending and absorbing the pressure while looking for quick counter-attacks through long balls
• A vital factor will be whether Cavani will be fully fit to play this match. Even if he starts, will he be 100% fit? Because without Cavani, Suarez loses his sting and he alone won’t be able to make the difference. And if unfortunately Cavani does not play, then Uruguay is likely to play ultra-defensive and will try to extend the match towards the tie-breaker.
• The third factor will be the pace of the French attacks and whether the resolute Uruguay defence will be able to cope up to that without yielding into cards and/or penalties. Mbappe has shown his speed and skills in their last match. He is a player to watch along with Griezman. Giroud can always trouble the opponent’s defence by his physical strength and height.
• For Uruguay, it will be critical to try and stop the movement’s right in the midfield. For that, I think the role of their midfielders will be more important than ever. Probably more than their passing abilities during counter attacks, it will be their skills as a defensive blocker which will be in high demand. It is important that they do not give any space to Pogba, Kante, Lemar, etc. to initiate any attacks. In order to do so, Uruguay needs to play a high press game and try zonal marking right from their midfield.
• France typically will play 4-2-3-1 with Pogba, Kante as the two withdrawn midfielders while Mbappe, Griezman and Matuidi as the attacking game makers with Giroud as the lone striker. In order to counter the attacks, Uruguay most probably will play 4-4-2 or 4-3-1-2 with the defence starting just below the two strikers of Cavani and Suarez
• For France, it will be critical to neutralising the threat from Cavani and Suarez. If they can block and frustrate them from the beginning by proper man marking, I think half of the battle will be won for them.
• And finally, knowing the capability of the French team if given the smallest of any space, Uruguay will definitely play physical in this match. So, do expect a lot of fouls and I will not be surprised if I see a red card or multiple red cards in this match!
Prediction time?
Comparing the two teams, on paper, it looks like France has the edge and hence my prediction based on logical thinking favours France to win the match within 120 minutes, if not in 90 minutes. But definitely it will be a tough football on display and you never know what kind of surprise is just around the corner!
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